Elementary School Utilization vs. Population Change Under 10

New York, NY, USA

By Max Freedman
schools, school zones, school utilization, population change, segregation, integration, gentrification

Can population change under 10 years old between 2000-2010 help us understand why some elementary schools are over- or under-utilized?

I worked with the Center for NYC Affairs to create a series of maps of the city’s elementary schools and elementary school zones using different indicators. The first two maps went public on December 16, under the headline “Segregated Schools in Integrated Neighborhoods: The city’s schools are even more divided than our housing.” The two maps embedded here (http://www.centernyc.org/segregatedschools) were created primarily by Nicole Mader, but we collaborated on the data analysis and styling.

My map, below, was initially meant to be released with the others, but has been delayed to January or February.

Unlike Nicole’s maps, here the zones and the schools are displaying different indicators. The school points are lighter or darker depending on school utilization: the proportion of the school’s target capacity being used. The zone polygons are lighter or darker depending on the change in population under 10 years old between 2000 and 2010.

While the map may be more complicated to read and interpret, I think it’s important to show change over time because all of these factors (including race and income) are temporally and spatially dynamic. Emphasizing the change over time up to the present is a good reminder that change will continue; school integration is not a magic static number.

The takeaways from my map are not necessarily straightforward. The strongest claims for causation between population change and utilization are anecdotal. However, based on my experience and research, here’s what I see:

• Loss in child population of many low-income communities of color which have recently seen an influx of young people without children, including Central Brooklyn (Bed-Stuy, Ocean Hill, Crown Heights, Flatbush), East Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Astoria, Harlem, Washington Heights, and Inwood. • In many cases, but especially dramatic in Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights (Districts 16 and 17), this population loss coincides with drastically underutilized schools. • Very significant population growth in child population of Downtown Brooklyn, Cobble Hill, Park Slope, Long Island City, the Financial District, and Chelsea, and growth throughout most of Manhattan below 110th Street. • In many zones with the most dramatic population growth, the schools are not significantly over- or under-utilized. • School overcrowding relative to insignificant population change in the upper Bronx and many areas of Queens. • Intense concentration of charter schools in Central Brooklyn and the South Bronx.